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Hispanic Growth and the 2010 Reapportionment

The 2010 census will confirm continued robust population growth among Hispanics, who hope to translate their status as the nation's largest minority group into more political power.

"The Latino electorate has been consistently increasing both their total number of voters as well as their share of the electorate," Andres Ramirez, senior vice president and director of Hispanic programs at the center-left think tank NDN, said at a briefing Tuesday in Washington.

This trend is evident across the nation, and not just in states along the U.S. border with Mexico. "As this trend continues, it will be increasingly difficult for any candidate to win either a state or a national election without the support of Latino voters," Ramirez said.

The question is whether Hispanics can parlay their beefed-up population numbers into greater clout in Congress, where there are only 23 Hispanics in the 435-member House, or 5 percent of the total.

Arturo Vargas, the executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO), emphasized the importance of full participation by Latinos in the 2010 census, which will be used to reapportion U.S. House seats at the end of that year.

"This is the first census in which Latinos are the nation's second-largest population group. The fact remains, that we cannot have an successful 2010 census without an accurate count of Latinos," Vargas said.

According to the consulting firm Election Data Services Inc., Texas is projected to gain four congressional districts in reapportionment, from 32 to 36, in large part because of burgeoning growth among Hispanics. According to a report from America's Voice, Texas grew its population by nearly 3.5 million since 2000 and by 2.2 million Hispanics, or 63 percent of the total.

Vargas hopes that three of the four new districts can be drawn as Hispanic-influence districts in and around Dallas, Houston and in the Rio Grande Valley.

In Arizona, which is expected to gain two seats (from eight to 10), Hispanics account for nearly half of the 1.4 million residents who have been added to the state population since 2000.

In Florida, which is expected to gain one seat, Hispanics again account for half of the state's population growth of 2.3 million residents since the beginning of the decade. Vargas advocates the creation of a Hispanic-influence district in central Florida, where there is a growing population of Puerto Rican Hispanics.

Hispanic population growth has been robust even in states that are projected to lose House seats.

"That means there are going to be more Hispanics spread out over a few number of seats. So their share, their percentage of representation in each district will increase, which will make them become more valuable to the members of Congress who have those seats," Ramirez said.